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Download Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life PDF

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts

Uncertainty is a basic attribute of climate, seasonal weather, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is entire and not using a description of its uncertainty. powerful verbal exchange of uncertainty is helping humans larger comprehend the possibility of a selected occasion and improves their skill to make judgements in line with the forecast. still, for many years, clients of those forecasts were conditioned to obtain incomplete information regarding uncertainty. they've got turn into used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the hot temperature can be 70 levels Farenheit nine days from now") and utilized their very own event in deciding on how a lot self assurance to put within the forecast. such a lot forecast items from the private and non-private sectors, together with these from the nationwide Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s nationwide climate provider, proceed this deterministic legacy. thankfully, the nationwide climate provider and others within the prediction group have famous the necessity to view uncertainty as a basic a part of forecasts. via partnering with different segments of the group to appreciate person wishes, generate appropriate and wealthy informational items, and make the most of potent conversation automobiles, the nationwide climate carrier can take a number one function within the transition to common, potent incorporation of uncertainty info into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes suggestions to the nationwide climate provider and the wider prediction neighborhood on easy methods to make this transition.

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Additional info for Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts

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Many decided to stay and either lost their lives (nearly 1,500 individuals died) or were stranded in the flooded areas in and around New Orleans. Nearly everyone in the region experienced some unavoidable economic loss. , remove trains from the city prior to landfall) to minimize losses. , evacuation of at-risk locations and oil and natural gas platforms). 2 72-hour NOAA hurricane strike probability forecast from August 28, 2005, preceding Katrina’s landfall. SOURCE: National Hurricane Center. 2-2 fixed image Copyright © National Academy of Sciences.

Not knowing important information is aversive and makes people shy away from making any decision at all in such a situation (Heath and Tversky, 1991). , new risks with no record of losses on which actuarial estimates of the probability of a loss can be placed). Just as risk aversion is typically mediated by an emotional rather than cognitive response, so is ambiguity aversion. Not knowing the precise probability level makes us feel uncomfortable, and feelings of worry or discomfort translate into avoidance.

Conversely, indi­viduals with a prevention focus tend to use “avoidance means” to attain their goals. For example, a preventionfocused student seeking a high exam score (or rather, trying to avoid a low exam score) might ensure that they know the required material and will avoid distractions prior to the exam. Hansen et al. (2004) found that prevention-focused farmers were more likely to seek to minimize post-decisional regret than promotion-focused farmers. They also remembered a greater number of flooding events and were more likely to purchase crop insurance.

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