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Empirical vs. Predictive Methods The methods presented in the section "Selected Method Categories" can be classified into (1) mathematical models, such as dispersion models and ecosystem structural models; (2) physical simulations, for example, microcosm or mesocosm tests; and (3) real-world empirical methods, such as detection and monitoring, laboratory experiments, or field studies. As the risk assessment focus shifts from most likely outcomes to low-probability outcomes, empirically based or physical simulation methods become less useful.

The Dead Sea), high-temperature environments (hot springs, burning coal refuse), acidic environments (acid mine drainage), and environments of high-intensity ultraviolet light (alpine lakes). In such environments, organisms with unique adaptations (properties) may fill niches in which competition is minimal. Organismal properties allowing adaptation to such environments include ultraviolet protective pigments, thermally stable membrane lipids and enzymes, enzymes functional at high salt concentration or at high pressure, and modifications in cellular protein synthesis for adaptation to low temperature.

1984. Report on workshop on possible ecological and evolutionary impacts of bioengineered organisms released into the environment. Bull. Ecol. Soc. America 65(4). 23. Ruckelshaus, W. D. 1985. Risk, science, and democracy. Issues in Sei. Tech. 1 (3): 19-38. 24. Fiksel, J. 1985. Toward a de minimis policy in risk regulation. Risk Analysis 5 (4): 257-259. 25. Office of Science and Technology Policy. 1985. Chemical carcinogens: A review of the science and its associated principles. Part II. Federal Register 50:10371-10442.

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